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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • 10%.

    • Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate resigning promptly: 5%
    • Chance he cancels or significantly delays election: 3%
    • Chance he successfully refuses to leave office after election using force: 2%

    Here are all the ways that doesn’t happen:

    • Chance he dies of natural causes: 70% - it’s about one in three per year for a man in his early 80s, which would give us 1-0.66^4 = 81% for four years, but he has access to the best possible medical care
    • Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%
    • Chance he attempts to cancel or delay the election and fails: 10%
    • Chance he refuses to leave office after election and is removed: 10%

    These things have a less than 1% chance:

    • Constitutional amendment
    • Supreme court allows him to run for a third term in violation of the unambiguous text of the constitution



  • Yes. I’d rather not be, but most people I know in person use it, and do not regularly view or share content using anything else in a one-to-many format.

    What I won’t do is install any of their mobile apps or regularly use their chat. When people try that, I reply hours later using something else.







    1. People install communication apps because someone they want to communicate asks/tells them to. I don’t want to use Slack, but people who pay my bills use Slack, so I use Slack. I use Matrix too because I believe in it philosophically, but the UX is a little rough and very few conversations I want to have are actually taking place there.
    2. I don’t really understand this one. Adblockers are relatively easy to install and the modern web sucks without them.
    3. I haven’t encountered much of this in a long time, but familiar feels safe to people. Something they haven’t heard of might feel sketchy.
    4. This sounds like someone trying to persuade you to install an app because you using it would be convenient for them.



  • I don’t think many people have read RFC 5322 (I haven’t), but most non-technical people I know understand these things about email:

    • There are different service providers, and people can email each other no matter which provider they use
    • There are different email apps
    • Some apps are tied to specific service providers and others are not

    I do lament the overall level of tech literacy.