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Cake day: June 22nd, 2023

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  • Felt that I should add a few notes:

    Storing a small supply of luxury items for trade or making friends may be a good idea. Don’t set aside so much that you make yourself into a mark, just a small amount, maybe no more than a grocery bag full. Tobacco, booze, coffee, weed if it’s legal, and chocolate are all going to be big hits with a lot of folks, but you know your area better than I do and maybe you’d be better off having a special cheese stash or something. Use your best judgement. Get into this stash when you need a little something to make or sweeten a trade, or when you’d like to make nice with someone (pro-tip, give gifts with no expectations of reciprocity, but if it’s offered, don’t refuse. Instead of refusing, try to see that it doesn’t feel like the exchange of gifts wasn’t completely square. Not so much that someone feels ripped off, but enough that the transaction doesn’t feel complete. It’s a narrow window to thread, and just accept the exchange graciously if you can’t hit it).

    If you’re worried about keeping your food garden low-key, there’s a number of plants that can pass as ornamentals that, while not staple crops, will still feed you. Right out the gate, pumpkins are, imo, really able to walk the line between ornamental and food. Corn can go with pumpkins here if you can pull off the fall aesthetic. Going into less conventional food sources, you can put clover, chives, and spring onions into your front yard and they probably won’t be meaningfully distinguishable unless you’ve got some HOA dorks up your ass. There’s also a number of clump grasses that will 100% pass as ornamentals but will also feed you. Look into the grasses that the native Americans depended on in your area; they’re a little too region specific and too many to get into here, IME. There’s also a pretty good selection of trees and herbs that can be treated as ornamentals, but will also keep you fed. Blueberries spring to mind, in particular, as their foliage is very handsome imo.


  • potatoes can keep your ass alive and can dead ass be grown in buckets and sacks and basically anywhere tbh. They’re not picky plants, either. Just watch a couple YouTube videos to get your bearings, go buy a couple potatoes from the grocery store, and plant those bitches. You’re probably going to want to try and get potatoes that haven’t been treated to keep them from sprouting, or else give them a good scrub and let them sit on the windowsill till they start sprouting. You could also go and buy seed potatoes, but that’s really not needed and it’s a higher up front cost. Plant them literally anywhere; heavy clay soil, shade, use whatever you have; potatoes have preferences but they don’t really give that much of a fuck. Plant some french marigolds alongside for a good edible flower that will help control the pests that like munching on potatoes.

    Learn to Forage this one takes some time, dedication, caution, and research, but you would be absolutely blown away just how much you’re surrounded by edible weeds and unrecognized fruit trees. Get in the habit of identifying the plants that you see (plant net is a helpful tool) around you, learning about them, and spotting them elsewhere as you go through life. See someone’s fruit tree bearing fruit? I can just about promise that if you go and ask them nicely, they would be absolutely grateful for someone to take all that fruit away before it becomes a mess they have to clean up. Make sure you show your gratitude if that’s the case, whatever that looks like for you; for me, it’d be leaving them some of the picked fruit or bringing some of the jam that I made from it.

    Ditch the car if you can. Shit’s expensive, yo. Especially if you live in a city, a bicycle, e-bike, or motorcycle can do most of what you need out of a car most of the time if you get creative.

    Skill up start learning the simple stuff- how to patch and darn tears in your clothes, how to cook on a budget (there’s great depression cookbooks around that are pretty good), how to repair and service stuff, how to jam and can your leftovers, how to entertain yourself cheap with card and dice games or drawing, and a really huge underrated one is how to talk to other people. If you’re terrible at dealing with other people, get to fucking work on it yesterday and thank me later. I found the book Verbal Judo to be enormously helpful.

    NETWORK bring small gifts to your neighbors when you can, share your good fortune with them, ask them how you can help, start getting involved in the lives of the people around you and get to know them. If you don’t have some kind of regular meeting you go to with otherwise unrelated folks, find one. This is a way to build resilience, because there’s going to be times where things aren’t so rough for you, and times where things are extra rough. That’s true for everyone. If you have other people who can lean on you and you can lean on, we can all help smooth out each other’s journeys through the downturn.

    Don’t be afraid to get ghetto. Do what you’ve got to do. Summer’s hot, man, go ahead and put foil on cardboard and put that shit in your windows. Winter’s fucking cold; it’s easier and cheaper to heat small spaces than big spaces, just don’t catch your shit on fire or give yourself CO poisoning (NO combustion indoors, that includes using a kitchen stove for heat! Make sure the heater is completely by itself on a non-flammable surface). You can’t eat a lawn; fuck that grass, plant potatoes, onions, and marigolds. Will some people find it impossible to mind their own goddamn business? Certainly, but it’s a small price to pay for surviving. Need a coat? Go to Goodwill, go to a garage sale, shit, ask your neighbors if they have one they don’t want anymore. Don’t be above asking for help. Don’t be a fucking thief, but keep your eyes open for opportunities; people throw all kinds of good shit away all the time, even during downturns. If something breaks, prioritize whether it needs to be fixed now, patched now, or if it just has to wait; if it’s just about keeping up appearances, it can wait.

    Start prepping now set aside an emergency stash of:

    • Cash (my rule of thumb for rock bottom minimum is ~$100/person). This is cash for absolute emergencies, treat it as a non-renewable resource. I would say not to use it trying to stay in your mortgage even though you don’t have a plan for the month after that.

    • Food: brown rice, dry beans, macaroni (whole grain is best), and bulk powdered potatoes will get you a long way. Learn to use these ingredients before you actually depend on them, and have a bulk supply on hand. Also, set aside some salt and pepper to keep you from completely losing your fucking mind. Each of these individual things can really help you stretch your meals or tie together a few other random ingredients into something edible. They’re not a complete nutrition source on their own, but they’ll just about keep your ass alive. Add to your food stash as you see fit, but try to keep it cheap, flexible, and durable.

    • Medicine: prescription and OTC. Needing Tylenol for your kids (or worse, Albuterol), or Imodium or ibuprofen for you, and not being able to get it is a super dog shit feeling. I’d say set aside three times as much as you think you need for the stuff that they don’t sell in bulk, and twice as much for the stuff they do sell in bulk.

    • Luxuries: if you like coffee, set aside a couple containers of it. It doesn’t have to be great; Folgers will rock your fucking world once you’ve been without coffee long enough. Same deal with chocolate, dehydrated fruit, or candy. Basically, give yourself something to look forward to once in a while.

    This is hardly a comprehensive list, you know your own unique needs and situation better than I do, and there’s going to be other better or worse advice for that here. Go with what fits for you.

    I hate to say it, but things get worse than you think in a downturn. Lots of people get depressed and blame themselves for what’s happening. Please remember that the way you feel isn’t the way you’re always going to feel. Shit sucks, and everything is temporary.







  • Those little mistakes drove me nuts. By the end of my second day with copilot, I felt exhausted from looking at bad suggestions and then second guessing whether I was the idiot or copilot was. I just can’t. I’ll use ChatGPT for working through broad issues, catching arcane errors, explaining uncommented code, etc. but the only LLM whose code output doesn’t generally create a time cost for me is Cody.









  • Tl;Dr, it’s not the tourists per se, it’s the shitty laws in your area. They wouldn’t be able to fuck up the housing market if there was an abundance of housing.

    I mean, maybe consider channeling your ambitions for the good of everyone. Think of it this way: the tourism itself isn’t the problem, it’s how the tourism is being handled that is. There are local small businesses that depend on those tourists, whose money largely stays in your community, as compared to big corps like Wal-Mart that are much more extractive; the tourists gain an appreciation for your small town, and members of your small town get opportunities to meet new people and grew new commerce that they never would otherwise. The issue is that, because of certain factors that are true for much of the US, these tourists are being catered to in ways that are harmful for locals. The good news is that you can change these factors, they’re not set in stone, they’re just set in bad policy, often local bad policy.

    For example, Airbnb has exacerbated the already existing housing shortage, but there is a housing shortage because of our insistence on almost exclusively building sprawling tracts of single family homes. The simple fact of the matter is that it’s not really realistic to house everybody in a single family home (and there’s a lot of reasons for this), and it’s really hard to build them cheap enough and in plentiful enough supply to keep competition high and keep housing affordable. This means that single family home tracts inevitably trend towards being affordable only by those who already have assets, which would be people like landlords and Airbnb operations. Building more mixed-use neighborhoods and higher density housing (where subletting is often prohibited) would at least blunt the housing affordability crisis. Unfortunately, many city councils and planning commissions (at least here in CA) throw shit fits about anything but single family housing being built, and then proceed to wonder why nobody can afford the $500,000 Mini-McMansions that have sprung up.

    Directly regulating vacation rentals is tricky to do well. Many tourist areas just sort of end up converting their regulations into fee collecting operations, which doesn’t really help anyone. Other places directly limit how many properties can be vacation rentals, or even outright ban them, but enforcement is almost universally sloppy and you’re all but guaranteed to get sued by Airbnb. This is still a developing field for local governments, but I think the trick is not ending up accidentally creating black markets. One strategy that could work well is working to increase traditional and/or small business hotel availability in your area, which would naturally eat into the profit margins of vacation rentals and make them less inticing, but I don’t know how effective that would really be since those markets don’t have perfect overlap.

    Edit: seeing lots of replies in this post from people whose towns have regulated this stuff, some more successfully than others. I’m glad to see that this is a concern for city leadership across the country.

    The issue that lies at the heart of the vacation rental problem is that a vacation rental operator can collect in four days what they’d get from a traditional renter in a month from a property, and since property values are only going up due to the housing shortage, they’re making money on the front and back of the business, basically. This makes it so that, as a property owner trying to maximize your own outcomes, you’d be leaving money on the table by not evicting your tenants and converting your rental home into a vacation rental. You don’t even have to have a high occupancy, so as long as you rent for a few days a month, your mortgage is covered. Of course, if everyone does this, there’s nowhere left for the locals to live. I’ve seen too many small towns shoot themselves in the foot this way; the average wages stay close to entry level, but the only people who can afford to live there are the retirees. Everyone gets angry at Obama that all of the kids move away and nobody ever moves into town, but nobody wants to leave money on the table and provide an affordable place to live either. It’s a sort of tragedy of the commons.

    There’s not going to be a solution that makes everyone happy. IMO, the best solution is to just start building lots and lots of (good) mixed use apartments around special public transit districts. That should, if anything, normalize prices at the entry level for the housing market, and allow people to save money by not anchoring them to a car payment, car insurance, car maintenance, tags, etc etc. At least that way, you can build lots and lots of housing quickly to try and get a grip on the cost of shelter. I’m not sure that attempts to directly regulate vacation rentals will be successful, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be tried.

    So, what can you do with this? Run for city council; if you’re in a small or medium city, these races are still accessible for the average person and you’d be amazed at the amount of power that city councils have. You could also run for mayor, run for state legislature, run for county board of supervisors, or even just join an advocacy group like CA YIMBY (Yes In My BackYard, which advocates for more housing and transit oriented development to try and make housing accessible and affordable again). Besides, small towns tend to have a lot of former high school football stars in them that think they’re immune to legal consequences, so I’d be real careful about trying to interrupt their money making operations through stuff like propaganda.