Whoa its updated and high res.
Think it might bounce back one more time?
Absolutely will, lot of financial institutions still need to finish offloading their shit on the rubes and they need another big IPO for that. All bets are off after that though
Ah, yes, that’s the time of all the ads telling you to invest and buy stocks, so the small investor is holding the bag.
Everyone here is so excited for the bubble to pop, even though it would make everyone’s life harder.
As for me? I too am also excited for it to pop.
Why? Well what the hell is the alternative, I’ll take a market correction and return to sane time any day of the week but it seems that them oligarchs are too horney for their game of financial Russian roulette.
I rather them putting the gun down, but if they insist on playing then I want them to lose faster.
The problem is the robber barons are unaffected by the crashes. In fact, it just becomes another buying opportunity for them with all that free money lying around. They just keep getting richer. It’s the rest of us that suffer.
Unfortunately they never lose.
Yeah, pretty sure they will get bailed out.
It will be 2008 all over again and we are still in the 2008 aftermath. Democrats are not brave enough to change things. No one who is going to be allowed near power is talking breaking up the monopolies and regulation. I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
As a Brit, I just hope we, and Europe in general, kick America dependency to not get pulled round by their whims and eventual collapse. But most people’s digital lives are completely dependent on American monopolies. So much so they don’t dare even see it.
I don’t think so on this one. Logistically it’s toast. Society has a negative outlook on it. You can’t sell AI like you can firearms and politicians aren’t going to stick their neck out for it.
It will all be about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies). Wrapped in a flag. It doesn’t have to be popular. There are only two parties and they will both be for it.
Well put. That’s the summary of it. Sadly
Hope we are wrong, I just don’t see going differently.
I’d say it’s by design. There’s a strong push against even something like ranked voting. While that has it’s flaws voting A or B doesn’t work. Especially A or B can’t identify as either nor can be trusted. Prime example is Charlie Christ.
They can’t really bail them out like they did in 08. Just to compare Ford to OpenAI for sake of my argument. The collapse of Ford risked not only losing a company but also the institutional knowledge within on top of the fact that Ford itself could eventually pay off the loan which isn’t even getting into other benefits, for comparison what does the collapse of OpenAI risk beyond some edge case nonsense hell could they even pay off a loan. Trying to bail out the AI industry would be dead on arrival by default, the best you may be able to do is downsize them massively and maybe make them profitable via specialized sub industries but yet again that risks them collapsing regardless.
More to the point is the magnitude. Note that Ford ultimately didn’t get a bailout, but between GM and financial sector they did about $500 billion, which adjusted for inflation would be about $800 billion. That’s not enough to even cover OpenAI’s obligations by itself, let alone the broader AI industry. GM’s bailout was $50 billion.
Thanks for correcting and adding to my statement on how severe this whole thing is, I have it in my head but I’m a bit shit at elaboration. Also I knew it was one of the big three but I couldn’t remember if it was Ford or GM.
I’m not saying it is a good idea. Or even one the populous wants. I’d be shocked if it all allowed to collapse and dominoes fall where they may. It will all be wrapped in the flag and about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies) and force fed to voters by both parties. There are only two parties to buy.
Oh I got what you meant I just disagree. My point was that AI is a money burning party with nothing to show unlike basically any other industry, even if you bail them out once they’ll likely need to be bailed out again by the next quarter since they don’t really have a product to sell. Not even getting into all the debt a lot of these companies have or any future contracts that have been signed.
Point is even if they are bailed out it will amount to doing a blood transfusion on someone with an actively bleeding artery. They are far more likely to wipe everything else out than succeed, though I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the end goal for dipshits like Thiel. Maybe it’s a weird but of optism but I can’t quite see enough congresscritters siding with that since basically all of them gain their power through the government and the current economic systems continued existence.
You say they have nothing, but a lot of people are using it. Now I’d argue many aren’t getting value out of it, even at a 10th to 100th the actual cost, but they think they are. (Often it is someone else has to fix the slop)
And I’m not saying a government bailout is the end of it. It just kicks the can down the road further. And probably makes the final pop bigger.
There is a reason these guys are building bunkers. It’s not AI they are fearing. It is us. Rising up and demanded retribution. They are literally trying to work out how they can keep their security people under control in a collapse. And hoping to replace them with bots. Thinking they can maintain that themselves. Or leave earth and hide where we can’t go. It’s all absolutely mental.
I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
Shit won’t improve before people kill oligarchs. We’ve not seen a peasant correction in Europe since the French revolution.
This is why they are building bunker fortresses.
2008 had a very wide blast radius. If it was just a handful or even most banks that were in trouble it probably wouldn’t have been a bailout. Mortgage securities were everywhere and no one knew how much they were actually worth. Most the fortune 500 facing a double digit percentage loss was looking likely, which would have been catastrophic.
Compared to today it might be more money, but it’s isolated to the tech sector. Even then a lot of the worst of it is not on publicly traded companies .
When the dominoes fall, it is unlikely to be neatly contained due to the scale if nothing else.
Oh no, my life savings (2 sticks of DDR5) will decrease in value.
You mean Sam’s ddr5?
I get to use it 5% of the time (e: for $20/mo)
I can’t wait for civilization to collapse so my ideology can rise from the ashes, anarcho-raiderism.
I want a form of government where to become president you have to travel to 7 ancient temples and at each one pass the trial and acquire the artifact
Whoever wears the most leather bondage gear is the faction leader.
WE.ALL.SAW.THIS.COMING.
I would be dramatically less upset if I was surprised. Its painful to of shouted this from the rooftops for what feels like years now, only to be dismissed so easily. What males it even more painful is its the same idiots that where so desperate for nfts to work because their lives are so pathetic the only way they can see it improving is yoloing it on some tiktok fad they just learned about a week ago.
The same people that are desperately defending ai on every turn desperately need it to work because they have taken full bait on the scam. They probably bought some 10k course from the PDB podcast or something like that on “how to get rich quick with ai for dummies” and then wasted 7.5k in tokens to make a web wrapper that sends all user input to Claude and does literally nothing. All their retirements are getting fucked by ai and they probably dumped all their personal savings into ai stocks. Literally the whole american economy is held up by a scam and instead of looking at death in the eye people rather claim ignorance and get mad and upset when you point out the truth.
I rapidly flip between “everyone is just misguided and have been intentionally deprived of good information”, and “oh god the stupid people are running the planet, they are lesser beings who only prevent progress.” And that usually just depends on my mood.
I just don’t understand how practically every business in recent times has operated on this model, and its not just obvious to everyone that this is the new scam to siphon money out of you instead of a real grass roots business that has actual real proven thing.
I think they saw it coming as well.
There is a song playing, fewer chairs than people running and it is about to stop. They want to earn money and hope they are not the last one to sit.
They are playing a game and they know it
They saw it coming. This is a legal bank heist. The ultra rich rob the banks then will cry poverty (to big to fail) and demand to be rescued only rob the banks again another day. This isn’t the first time they’ve pulled this scheme, it won’t be the last. As long as it keeps working they’ll keep doing it.
Kick out fascists
State seizure of big tech, ISPs, and utilities
Require reeducation for conservatives
End citizens united
Expand Supreme Court, house, and senate
End first past the post and require proportional representation
Eliminate presidential pardons
If you’re gonna support all that why not just destroy the government and make a worker’s state?
To expand on that chuds will really take to this if you just throw words in like “america first” or “for the people”
2026 has kinda fucked up their brains and they sometimes confuse nationalism with socialism. They still love nationalism so you just work off of that. Once they learn its socalism after they already agreed to it’s already in their head as a good idea and have a harder time walking away from it. If there’s one thing they are bad at its self reflection and admitting they are wrong, so just get that brain worm in there.
If you say you’re making a workers party already you lost majority of the country. If instead you just say we are fixing the country and kicking out Israel and giving the money back to Americans for an american first country, then you got a lot of confused conservatives on your side who are bitter. I’ve unironically heard conservatives say they’ll vote for aoc to “punish” their own party. So things are weird right now and potentially in a advantageous way.
No, actually, that’s really bad, because that’s exactly what the national socialists were.
No no we don’t become national socialist. But I understand your fear. I was implying lying to people.
I mean, like you’re literally arguing for like the lib cultural revolution, and restructuring of the government, which definitely requires some sort of takeover, why shouldn’t it be working class? You’re only like 12 steps away from being a Maoist.
The blue party will oppose all of this.
I’m doing my part by continuing to ask chatgpt questions constantly without paying them money. I have started using Claude at work as well. If I do it enough, they’ll eventually all realize it’s expensive af, and give up on it. That’s the hope anyway.
Edit: Also, fucking finally. Been waiting for this to happen for what seems like ages.
log out before doing anything. chatgpt now serves ads if youre logged in, thus making them money.
Log out of what? I don’t have an account. My work thing is officially set up. I didn’t do anything but request access to it at work. Now I’m juat trying to use up my works money so they realize it’s stupid to use AI for everything. They put a cap in how many credits I can use, so it’s not endless. I kinda just wish they would stop trying to shove it down our throats.
Everyone is hoping that we start arresting these politicians and tech bros when the bubble bursts but why wait?
That won’t happen. People like Elon only exist because of these bubbles. The bubble means nothing to the individuals, they just jump ship and start something new.
The state of the world says an actual revolution is a possibility
Is this finally the crack, or will they manage to paper over it and keep the bubble growing even further?
Some losses are about to get socialised
the AI
boombubbleSo should I withdraw whatever i have in technology index funds, while I have the gains?
If you have a place to park it that will earn more or lose less, definitely. Putting into cash will lose at least 3% per year.
I’m thinking withdraw my gains, wait for the crash, buy in again? Damn, it’s a gamble…
Timing the market usually fails. Dollar cost averaging can give you a small advantage.
Assuming that AI follows a similar path as the .com boom… A lot of companies will go under leaving a few companies who will benefit greatly. It’s not that AI is going away. We’re just pruning the dead wood.
thank fuck there is some rstional advice here
don’t time the market you helpless gambling addicts
The AI bubble won’t be a typical dip. Some, maybe most, of these companies will be wiped out. No idea as to who crawls out the blast crater, but there will be survivors.
My uneducated and impoverished thought is cash will buy you real estate which is about to get really cheap, whereas any stock you buy today is going to have a severe crash very soon.
But most of my investments are in beans: i’ve got jars or black, red, garbanzos, kidney, and navy beans; also a variety of lentils.
Real estate has the potential to be cheap in 20 years as the baby boomers die leaving smaller generations to buy their larger number of homes.
Any kind of asset can be a good investment. If you have a place to store it, classic cars only go up in price and some of them are under 10K. Bonus: you get to drive them. I know someone whose 401k is mostly collectable guns (rare, 100+ years old guns). You just need to choose something with lasting value. Don’t repeat the Beanie Baby crash.
I’m still holding ono my Smurf collection! Some day they will be valuable!
@P1nkman It depends. There is no universal answer.
About two months ago I read a very astute article about this circular, excessive financing in data centers and chips and thought, “here we go again.” Cashing out locks in your losses. That was my mistake in the last tech bubble. This one is set to be worse. This time around, I’m much more diversified and my personal answer is “no.” I moved about 10% of my tech funds into low-risk investments and the rest I will let ride. It may take years for recovery, but I can wait.
If you think you will need that money in the next few years, you might consider taking at least your profits now, maybe more. If your investments are in your retirement account then you also have to reckon your potential tax liability now versus later.
In theory you could short Microsoft, NVidia, etc. but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, so even though those stock prices are a crack fueled fever dream, betting against them is likely gonna be a trip to the poor house. I saw someone on here recommend some funds that are mostly large cap, traditional companies (read, not big tech) and some bond funds. I was going to research his recs today and see if it would make sense to move some money out of the S&P 500 index fund that I lean on way too much (of couse, it would have been better if I considered this a week ago 🤦🏾).
Lemme see if I can dig up that post…
Hopefully this link works, I’m using Voyager and haven’t figured out how to link posts https://lemmy.world/comment/26583022
I bought 30 AMD stocks for $13 a pop almost 10 years ago. Last month I sold 5 for $3200 (~$640 each) today they are about $500 each. Really wishing I had sold all of them.
Depends on your risk profile. But if you look at the growing capex and consecutive negative free cash flow of big tech, it is a sign of worry if you are only investing short term or you do swing trades.
i mean with alphabet alone we’re already half way there…
Nature is healing.
